2023-2024 NHL Season Predictions, Projections, and Thoughts
The long-awaited NHL season begins tonight, bringing fans' expectations, hopes and dreams to life. Some will be disappointed come December, others surprised. While I am extremely excited for the upcoming season, I also think my Montreal Canadiens are not going for Cup #25. Nevertheless, I decided to make a few predictions and projections ahead of the new season, as well as share some of my own thoughts.
1. Is it finally the Leafs’ year?
Kyle Dubas left the team during the offseason, but it was in great condition. Brad Treliving was able to lock up Auston Matthews, a major move for the organization as it will eliminate the attention around their top player’s contract during the season. My biggest surprise is that Fraser Minten, 2022 second-round pick, made the final roster. He looked very good in preseason and I look forward to seeing him in Toronto. The additions of Bertuzzi and Domi will provide depth scoring to the team. This might be an unpopular opinion, but I like Ryan Reaves on the Leafs as he showed effort and intensity in preseason. I don’t expect him to play every game this season, but his attitude is going to be a plus in the locker room. I also like their defensive core, and I am eager to see Timothy Liljegren play this year, as he might become one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL. If Samsonov plays well, this squad can go far during the playoffs.
The Devils and Stars are my two other favourites to lift the Cup this year. Dallas has a complete roster with a good mix of young players and veterans. Their top 9 is now stacked thanks to the addition of Matt Duchene, which I like a lot. Their defensive core led by Miro Heiskanen should be enough, especially if backed by a stellar Jake Oettinger, to go through the West and last until late June. The Devils on their part are going to be a threat and could end up on a great run in the spring. They are going to score a lot of goals, and they added Tyler Toffoli in the offseason, which will just help their offense being even more lethal. I have been a big Dawson Mercer fan since his QMJHL days and I can’t wait to see him develop into a lethal winger in the league. Their playoffs path is going to be determined by their goaltending performances, a recurring theme for many teams.
I believe the Leafs can lift the Cup, and I predict Auston Matthews to become a member of the 50-50 club this year. Timothy Liljegren will also become dominant. With this level of talent, I think Toronto won’t be scared of the first round. Other teams should be.
2. Should the Red Wings… rebuild?
This is a hot take, but is it really one? Yes it is. The Red Wings have a collection of young players with upside which they just sent down to the AHL. Their recent free agency signings make me worry that they are relying too much on the development of these prospects to become a strong contender. But if they don’t pan out, the Red Wings might have capped their ceiling to a fringe playoffs team. Hence why I think they are still one or two excellent players away from being a juggernaut contender. Now, I don’t think the Wings should sell their players for picks, but rather try to add a young player or two who can help them now and for the future. Alex DeBrincat was brought in during the offseason, which helps, but their defensive core needs upgrades and I don’t know if Sebastian Cossa will become an elite goaltender in the NHL. Fortunately, Trey Augustine was a good pick at the 2023 draft.
All in all, I don’t think the Red Wings are in a bad spot regarding their future, but the Andrew Copp and Patrik Nemeth signings may have capped their ceiling, as they are not be able to tank properly anymore. However, if Marco Kasper, Lucas Raymond, Nate Danielson and Simon Edvinsson develop into dominant players, they should be able to make deep playoffs runs in future years. It just needs to happen before Dylan Larkin and the gang become too old.
3. Kirby Dach: best Hab next year
The Kirby Dach trade looks to be an absolute genius move by Kent Hughes after only one year. The 22-year old centre showed flashes and played brilliantly alongside Habs stars Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. With Caufield’s shoulder injury, the line was dismantled and Suzuki and Dach got to pivot their own. The latter showcased why he was a top-3 pick in 2019, as he was an excellent two-way player down the stretch. This year, Dach is projected to play alongside Juraj Slafkovsky and Rafael Harvey-Pinard or Alex Newhook. I firmly believe he can establish himself as the most dominant Canadiens’ player by the end of the season, perhaps behind Mike Matheson only if not.
4. AHL goalies should get their chance!
Dustin Wolf has only had absolutely nasty numbers since his junior days. He was a seventh (!) round pick in 2019 by the Flames, mostly due to his size at just 160 pounds. However, his athleticism and talent certainly make up for it. He was sent down to the Calgary Wranglers to start the season, but it would not surprise me if he got called up sooner rather than later if the Markstrom-Vladar tandem does not perform well. I also believe he could become a good backup option for Markstrom as he could challenge him for the starter spot.
The Boston Bruins had a tough offseason, with longtime players Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retiring from the NHL. They refilled with veterans in free agency but were not able to resign impact players and trade deadline acquisitions Tyler Bertuzzi and Dimitri Orlov due to salary cap restrictions. There were rumours of teams wanting to trade for Linus Ullmark, and the Bruins should have thought about trading him despite him winning the Vezina (if they did not). Brandon Bussi was excellent in the AHL last year, and he deserves to have his chance in the big league soon. If the Bruins traded Ullmark, clearing $5 millions in cap space, they could have had the opportunity to sign a better player than depth, or keep Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi or Dimitri Orlov. Swayman was a top-5 goaltender in the league last year and I would not worry if he was my team’s starter. Brandon Bussi could be the Bruins’ backup in coming years, whether it is to Ullmark or Swayman.
5. Who’s going to make it in the Atlantic?
The Atlantic division might be one of the toughest divisions I have ever witnessed. It’s shaping up to be as competitive as it gets, with perhaps only 2 teams (Detroit and Montreal) who have a long shot to make it to the playoffs this season. Assuming the Atlantic takes up the two wild card spots in the East, one of Boston, Buffalo, Florida, Ottawa, Tampa and Toronto will miss out on the postseason. That would also mean two of Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Pittsburgh and Washington would not make it either. In short, the East is shaping up to be a tough conference, and every point in the standings will matter.
My predictions are that Boston and Florida will miss out, as well as Washington and the New York Rangers. I know this looks baffling, but I believe Buffalo and Ottawa finally have the difference makers to take a leap, and that the Rangers’ offense will not generate enough goalscoring for their lack of defensive involvement. Moreover, the Panthers will not have Montour and Ekblad to start the season, and Bobrovsky has been all but constant in his tenure in Florida. I think Boston’s lack of talent down the middle is going to be problematic, especially come the second half of the season.
6. Upcoming milestones
Connor McDavid is the B.O.A.T. in my books. He is just absolutely ridiculous. One milestone no one talks about enough is how crazy it would be if he hits 1000 career points THIS SEASON (!!!) at 27 years old. In the same season as John Tavares (2009 1st overall pick). McDavid currently sits at 850 career points, so it would require another exceptional year from him to reach 1000, but it could happen.
Finally, Marc-André Fleury currently has 544 career wins. He is just 7 short of tying Patrick Roy for 2nd all-time. The future member of the Hall of Fame should reach that number easily, even in a backup role in Minnesota. Fleury has had an illustrious career and might have been slightly underrated in a generation dominated by Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist.
This concludes my predictions, projections, and thoughts for the 2023-2024 NHL season. I know some of them will probably end up wrong, but it was still a fun exercise to do.
I wish everyone an exciting season! After all, another generational talent is coming to the league!